Unintended article: Draws In Test Cricket

Test cricket is one of those sports where a draw is almost always a cause for celebration, rather than derision.

Let’s face it, Test cricket wins when there are more draws than when matches end with an outright victory for one team…

Psychological Momentum: How success begets more success in sports

Conversion Rates, Drive and The Value of Wickets

I meant to write about a much-discussed topic, "Why 4-day Tests Might Not Be A Bad Idea..." You see, until very recently, I was with the majority, viciously against the idea of 4-day Tests. But, I have had to rethink things and was prepared to share those thoughts with you.

I had everything prepared, it was just a matter of putting the bits together. Then the Afghanistan/Zimbabwe Test happened and I just could not stop thinking about it. But, before you bolt, this is not a match review or an analysis of stand out players (I bet you would love that, wouldn't you?) It's about what new thoughts I developed from the match intertwined with a section I had created for the article.

So, here's an idea:

As early as Day 3 it seemed as if Afghanistan was well on their way to a huge victory, by an innings at least. 545 (declared) and a Zimbabwean batting collapse in their first innings were in line with the script. But a fightback in Zimbabwe's second innings after they had been asked to follow-on changed the outlook of the match. While it seemed improbable that Zimbabwe would win, it seemed highly likely that they could force a draw. And it is that prospect of a draw that kept people glued onto the contest and brought in more viewers.

A Conundrum: Draws, Not Victories, Are Good For Test Cricket

4-Day Tests might also mean more draws. And more draws is a good thing for Test cricket.

The reduction in draws over the last 20 or so years has meant that more Tests have been finishing a day or two early. While many see this as a positive, the rise in numbers of conclusive results also means that they have become too predictable.

As Liam J. A. Lenten wrote in his paper (The Decline In The Frequency Of Draws), "Tests that finish substantially early are too one-sided and that the option of one team playing for a draw during the fifth and final day can maintain interest in the Test for longer."

In the 1950s, Simon Rothenberg put forward the idea of the uncertainty of outcome. In his argument, he suggested that sports fans value competitive contests where "almost anything is possible." Yes, contests between strong and weaker teams will attract viewership, however, more often than not it is made up of existing fans. New fans are drawn by the prospect of an unpredictable result. The possibility of a David flooring a Goliath draws attention.

This is what makes T20 and ODI tournaments appealing, there is an "anything can happen" sense. Upsets or the possibility of upsets draw more viewers than matches with foregone conclusions.

A recent study titled, "Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment," done by Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani found an 11.2% increase in attendance in contests where the result was not a foregone conclusion. Ferguson and Lakhani's study focused on the Australian Football League over the period from 2013 to 2018. Interestingly, instead of having sold-out crowds in matches where teams were outright favourites, their study found that attendance swelled when the home team had a win probability of approximately 53%. That is a figure close enough to the "theoretical inflexion point that would arise if spectators cared purely about game uncertainty of outcome."

Exhibition Of Skill

Tim Urban best described what drives humans to watch sports in one of his Wait But Why articles. In a list of all other reasons why he pointed to our fascination with watching skilled practitioners at work.

"Humans have a fascination with freakish greatness, no matter what the skill is. Sports is a great place to watch people who are in the best .001% at something do what they’re great at, against other .001% people. Meanwhile, you—who are in like the best 73% at that thing—get to sit on your fat couch and judge them. It’s fun," he wrote.

No one wants to see mediocre displays, there is no enjoyment in there. Even you offer to pay me to do so (I need the money, so I will do so for the payment, but I will not enjoy it.)

Now, there is something about a team pushing for a victory while the other is defiantly holding on for a draw. It is a contest that is spellbinding.  As Test cricket history will show, some of the most memorable Test matches did not have outright results but ended in draws.

This is because such a contest does not resemble an assault of one team by another, but rather, a negotiation at a bargaining table. Each is defending their position but is wily enough to give slight concessions to the other as long as it keeps them going and secure. The bowling team willing to open up certain scoring areas in an attempt to trap the batters. The batters are willing to endure the frustration of consecutive maiden overs to tire out the bowling team...

It becomes an exhibition of skill and temperament.

This is the other thing that draws the audience’s attention, in addition to the uncertainty of outcome, is an exhibition of the highest skills on offer. You see, it takes skill, skilful and clever batting or bowling to be able to force a draw in a match that looked hopeless.

This Week’s Articles:

More successful teams are more likely to be bold and adventurous. They are more likely to make risky decisions and adopt unconventional tactics because they will get the benefit of the doubt much more often than less successful teams. - Psychological Momentum: How success begets more success

The value of a player’s wicket is intertwined with their conversion rate and how well they perform after reaching a milestone. - Conversion Rates, Drive and the Value of A Wicket

An Article From The Archive:

Given a long enough period of times, and an infinite number of chances, even a below-average darts player will stand behind the oche and hit the bull’s eye at some point. - Creating Accidental Champions Or Tier One Competitors

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