The Proteas Have A Problem
Losing Pretorius was a blow, but that might not be the Proteas' biggest issue.
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Dwaine Pretorius is a minimalist. He believes in mastering one or two slower-ball deliveries and consistency in execution. Pretorius places a huge emphasis on mastery, that’s why he named his website Talent Mastered. At 33, it is possible that he thinks like this because he has come full circle as a bowler.
When bowlers are starting out, they lean on the skills that got them noticed in the first place. They don't complicate things. After a while, they become adventurous and seek to expand their repertoire. They experiment a lot and add all sorts of deliveries to their arsenal.
After a while, bowlers head in the opposite direction. After thousands of hours of immersion in the subtleties and near-endless refinements, they come to understand what works best and what doesn't. So, they pare down their variations and return to simplicity. This simplicity is a result of one understanding their strengths and how to make the best of them.
The other reason could be his proximity to Dwayne Bravo. Pretorius and Bravo hit it off during their time together at Chennai Super Kings in the IPL. The two allrounders share a mutual respect. During IPL 2022, Bravo engineered Pretorius’ move to the CPL because he wanted the South African in his team.
“I believe any slower ball on the right length will be effective,” Pretorius shares in one of his Talent Mastered lessons. “Dwayne Bravo bowls the off-cutter and has done so for years. He has perfected one slower ball and shows us you don’t need four different slower balls, but only one very very good one.”
According to Pretorius, Bravo’s slower ball is very effective because it almost looks like his arm speed increases when he is bowling it. Most bowlers bowl a slower ball with a noticeably slower arm speed when they bowl their slower balls. When it comes to slower balls, Pretorius and Bravo resemble kids who make a joke, get the desired reaction, and then go on telling the same joke for the rest of the afternoon.
Pretorius’ quest for mastery is what has made him South Africa’s premier death overs bowler. When he pulled out of the India tour and the T20 World Cup, the Proteas lost a specialist who was going to give them an edge. But, that’s not the only edge Pretorius gave the Proteas. He also elongated the batting order.
In T20Is, Pretorius averages 21.72 at a strike rate of 164.5. He hits a boundary (a four or a six) every 4.29 balls he faces. Pretorius can score a quickfire 15 or 20 runs, runs which can be the difference between a win and a loss. He is also versatile and loves a challenge, which gives the Proteas’ batting order fluidity. He can come in as a pinch hitter at three after the fall of early wickets, to take advantage of the fielding restrictions during the PowerPlay.
No doubt, Pretorius provides the Proteas with balance. A couple of friends of mine think Delano Potgieter would have been the closest like-for-like replacement. Potgieter bats at five for North West Dragons. Averages 30.95 and has a strike rate of 131.57. But, Potgieter is a few rungs down on the ladder at the moment. I recently started paying attention to Potgieter because he is a leftie, that is a point of difference that I like.
But, losing Pretorius is not South Africa's big problem. It's a problem, yes. But it's also something they can work around to hide as a unit.
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In Pretorius’ absence, it is highly likely that the Proteas will play Wayne Parnell at number seven. Parnell is no Pretorius. Pretorius is a batting allrounder, Parnell is a bowling allrounder. His bowling skills give South Africa better odds at taking early wickets. He consistently gets the ball to swing early on. The white ball doesn't swing for long periods and having a bowler of Parnell's ability is huge.
The other thing is that Parnell is a left-arm seamer. I like left-arm seamers. I believe every good seam attack needs a quality left-arm seamer. Parnell fits that bill. Left-arm pace bowlers are perhaps the most coveted type of cricketer in the modern game. They bring a different angle of attack.
My obligatory cheesy statement: Parnell puts the P in what could be a potent pace attack with Rabada, Nortje and Ngidi.
Parnell is also no slouch with the bat. He is useful with the bat. Let me put it like this: Parnell is okay with the bat. Not number seven okay, probably better as a number eight. But, can do a job if required. However, that is not the Proteas' big problem. The Proteas' problem is at the top.
In the period between the 2021 and 2022 T20 World Cups, the Proteas have the second-lowest average for an opening pair. In 12 T20Is, the Proteas’ opening pairs average only 16.17 runs per match. In those matches, they have only scored 194 runs off the bat. Only Bangladesh (10.54) has the worst average at the top. Zimbabwe, with an average of 16.60 is marginally ahead. But, this is not the worst bit.
The Proteas have the third-worst strike rate for an opening pair: a meagre 110.23. That is slightly ahead of Zimbabwe (109.21) and Bangladesh (97.16). 110.23 is a long way away from New Zealand (148.24), India (147.36) Australia (146.10) and England (145.80).
In the period between the 2021 and 2022 T20 World Cups, South Africa won seven matches and lost five. They have also scored more than 200 runs five times and have a handful of 190+ scores. Reeza Hendricks, a player enjoying a splendid purple patch, and the middle order are largely responsible for these heroics. But, Hendricks is only a replacement player - third choice behind Bavuma and De Kock. Quinton De Kock has had a nightmare season, by his standards. Temba Bavuma has not had a great year either.
That is the Proteas’ big problem. The inability of their opening pair to take advantage of the fielding restrictions during the PowerPlay could be the difference between a healthy net run rate and an inferior one. Net run rate was the Proteas’ hurdle from the next stage at the 2021 World Cup.
If the Proteas’ opening pair could raise their strike rate a bit, at least into the 130s (ideally into the late 130s and early 140s), they could give their numbers three to six a solid platform to work from. The Proteas have some of the most dynamic players in that zone, Rossouw, Markram, Miller and Stubbs/Klaasen; players who can take the game away from the opposition.